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Module 04 · ETF Masterclass

Global Investing vs. America: Which Wins?

Should you invest in the world's largest economy — or the whole world?

8 min readBeginnerFree
A European investor stands between two paths — one leading to the United States, the other to a globe representing the rest of the world.
What you'll learn

By the end of this lesson, you will be able to:

  • Explain why global diversification matters.
  • Understand how the world's stock market is weighted today.
  • Recognise the trade-offs between concentrating on the U.S. and owning the world.
  • Build a long-term investing mindset that doesn't depend on predicting the next winner.

One world. Hundreds of markets. One decision.

8 min readBeginnerInteractiveModule 4 of 15

A quick story

Imagine two investors.

One decides to invest every euro in America.

The other buys the global market.

Twenty years later, neither remembers which country was leading when they started.

They only remember one thing:

They stayed invested.

That raises an important question.

Should you concentrate on the world's largest economy — or own businesses wherever tomorrow's winners emerge?

Why this matters

This decision isn't really America vs. the world. It's a decision about how much concentration risk you're comfortable accepting.

Concentrating in one country has produced remarkable returns in some decades — and painful losses in others. Owning the world smooths that ride, at the cost of never being fully invested in whichever country happens to be leading.

Understanding the trade-off is what allows you to build a portfolio you can confidently hold — through booms, corrections, and the long stretches in between.

Why do so many investors choose the S&P 500?

The S&P 500 tracks roughly 500 of the largest companies listed in the United States.

Although these companies are based in America, many of them earn a significant share of their revenue globally — which is part of why the index has become a default choice for so many investors.

Apple
Microsoft
Nvidia
Amazon
Alphabet
Meta
  1. 1United States
  2. 2500 largest companies
  3. 3Global customers
The global stock market, in one picture

Where the world's equity actually lives.

A single 100% bar — divided by how the world's investable stock market is weighted today. The United States dominates, but it isn't the whole picture.

United States
63%
Developed ex-US
24%
Emerging Markets
13%

Approximate weights, MSCI ACWI Index. Last reviewed: June 2025. Index weights change continuously as markets move; check the latest MSCI factsheet for current figures. Global ETFs generally follow market capitalisation rather than investing equally across countries.

📈 Grovcap Insight

Owning the world doesn't mean avoiding America.

Most global ETFs already invest more than half of their assets in U.S. companies because they follow global market capitalisation.

Why it matters: Choosing a global ETF is often about adding diversification — not reducing America's importance.

Has America always been the best investment?

No.

Different countries have led global markets during different decades.

1980s
Japan

Japanese equities dominated the world stage — until the bubble burst and a lost decade followed.

Late 1990s
Europe

European markets surged on the run-up to the euro, before ceding leadership in the 2000s.

2000s
Emerging Markets

China, Brazil and other emerging markets led global returns as commodities boomed.

2010s – today
United States

American technology giants have driven a long stretch of U.S. outperformance — the longest in modern memory.

Every generation believes today's leader will remain on top. History repeatedly suggests otherwise.

Three reasonable approaches

There is no single correct answer here — just different investing philosophies, each reflecting a different view of concentration, humility, and long-term returns.

Approach 1

100% S&P 500

Conviction in America

  • Simple, one-line portfolio
  • Concentrated in a single country
  • Historically strong long-term returns
Approach 2

100% Global ETF

Own the world as it is

  • Broad market exposure by default
  • Already includes a majority U.S. weight
  • No need to predict future leaders
Approach 3

Combination

Global core + U.S. tilt

  • Extra emphasis on the U.S.
  • Keeps global ownership as a base
  • Adjustable to your conviction
📈 Grovcap Insight

For many European investors, a global ETF is a practical starting point.

A global ETF already includes substantial exposure to the United States while reducing reliance on any single country.

The goal isn't to predict which country will outperform. It's to build a portfolio that can benefit regardless of which country leads next.

📈 Grovcap Insight

Home bias is one of the world's most common investing mistakes.

Investors everywhere tend to invest disproportionately in their own country — even when that country represents only a small share of the global market.

Why it matters: Diversification often means investing beyond what feels familiar.

Sources: Vanguard · Morningstar · BlackRock.
Myth vs reality

Myth: You must choose between America and the world.

Reality: A global ETF already owns America. It simply owns much more alongside it.

In one sentence

You don't have to predict tomorrow's winning country — you can simply own the world.

Key takeaways

  • The S&P 500 invests only in U.S.-listed companies.
  • Global ETFs invest across many developed and emerging markets.
  • As of mid-2025, the United States represents roughly 63% of global equity indices such as MSCI ACWI — a figure that changes as markets move.
  • No country outperforms forever — leadership rotates across generations.
  • Broad market exposure reduces reliance on any single country's future.
Investor Pulse

Your answers help us understand how European investors think — and shape the next lessons.

Which statement best reflects your thinking?
What matters most to you when building a long-term portfolio?
A short exercise

Which portfolio feels most comfortable to you?

There's no wrong answer — the goal is to understand the trade-offs behind each choice.

Knowledge check

Test what you've learned

Three quick questions. Answers and explanations appear instantly.

  1. Q1. What does a global ETF typically invest in?

  2. Q2. As of mid-2025, approximately what share of the global stock market is U.S. companies?

  3. Q3. True or false: A global ETF completely avoids investing in the United States.

Answered 0 of 3.

The Evidence Behind This Lesson

Grounded in landmark research.

This lesson draws on landmark academic research and evidence that has shaped modern investing.

Prof. Elroy Dimson, Prof. Paul Marsh, Dr Mike Staunton
London Business School
Global Investment Returns Yearbook (annual, UBS/LBS)
121+ years of returns across 20+ countries — the definitive long-run evidence that country leadership rotates and that no single market has outperformed permanently.
MSCI Index Research
Global index provider
MSCI ACWI Index Methodology
Published rules that define how country and stock weights are calculated in the global equity market — the reference used throughout this lesson.
Prof. Harry Markowitz
Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences (1990)
Portfolio Selection (1952)
Provided the theoretical basis for diversifying across markets rather than concentrating in a single country.
One Idea to Remember

The future's best-performing country is almost impossible to predict — so build a portfolio that doesn't depend on the prediction.

Broad global ownership is not a bet against America. It's an acknowledgement that markets rotate, and that European investors are best served by portfolios designed to endure across generations — not to time a single decade.

Last reviewed: July 2026

Explore the Evidence

Explore the primary sources behind this lesson.

Lesson-specific sources: original research, regulatory texts, or index methodology — chosen to let you verify the claims in this lesson.

Dimson, Marsh & Staunton — UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook

Long-run (120+ years) country return data used throughout this lesson.

UBS / London Business School

MSCI ACWI Index Methodology

Rules that determine country and stock weights in the global equity index.

MSCI

S&P Dow Jones — SPIVA Europe Scorecard

Regional evidence on active vs. index performance for European investors.

S&P Dow Jones Indices

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Final thought

The next great investment opportunity may come from a country nobody expects today.

A global portfolio gives you the chance to own it before anyone knows its name.

Disclaimer

The information provided by Grovcap is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always conduct your own research or consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.

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